← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
25
(8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
188
88-87-13
overall winrate
50.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.8%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1336
· median 1347
· range 1038–1689
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
32% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 36 | 15-18-3 | 45.8% | 46.2% | 48.6% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 27 | 12-14-1 | 46.3% | 46.8% | 47.5% | -0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 27 | 12-14-1 | 46.3% | 46.8% | 46.9% | -1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 23 | 9-12-2 | 43.5% | 44.4% | 46.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 58.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +3.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.9% | +16.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.7% | +8.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.6% | +3.8 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.7 |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.7% | +5.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.9% | +6.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Reprogram, Fast Cure, Spark Alight. Losers more often ran: Honorable Vanguard, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Crux Sight.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Under Fire
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Vanish from Sight
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprogram | +0.64 | 7 | 0 | 4 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.45 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.45 | 1 | 6 | 4 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.45 | 1 | 6 | 4 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.45 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.27 | 5 | 2 | 4 | |
| Under Fire | -0.27 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.27 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.27 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.27 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.18 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Library Witch | +0.18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.09 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.09 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.09 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.09 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.09 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |